Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc3dd…57b2
crypto · 1156 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$310 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$101 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$132
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses630 / 461
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions67
Markets (closed)1091 / 1156
History coverage117d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 67 History 1091 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$2
14 days−$30
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+38%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 61¢ 42¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-32%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 81¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 85¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 83¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 87¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No 96¢ 95¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 46¢ 21¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 70¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 91¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? No 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? No 94¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 97¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9 +$4 +48%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $9 −$3 -39%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 13 $3 +$11 +382%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +10%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $17 −$13 -77%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 +$2 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $2 +$2 +160%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +162%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 09 $3 $0 +7%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 07 $6 +$11 +175%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 31% −$52
crypto 24% −$50
world 19% +$1
other 15% +$64
weather 7% −$71
politics 2% −$7
culture 1% +$7
finance 0% +$1
economics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 95¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 10h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $1 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 85¢ $2 12h
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 89¢ $1 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 88¢ $1 12h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 12h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 31% -10.9%
≤30d 259 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 44% -8.2%
≤90d 833 -9.7% -18.3% 58% 29% -12.4%
all 1091 -7.9% -16.7% 58% 27% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 27% -11.6%
10% -24.6% 18% -20.0%
15% -31.9% 14% -27.8%
20% -38.6% 11% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.17 · official $132.17 (match) · 3500 history records