Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3de…a272 other 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$38
sports 27% −$24
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage136d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $528 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $440 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $410 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $339 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $271 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $212 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $836 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $512 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $307 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $361 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $426 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $687 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $511 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $198 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $333 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $151 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $168 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $142 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $401 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $157 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $153 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 8h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 9h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 10h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 12h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 12h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 15h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $63 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $63 32h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 32h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 33h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 35h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 36h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1354 history records