trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $21 | $0 | +1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 11 | $37 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$6 | -59% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 09 | $55 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $27 | $0 | -1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 08 | $53 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $86 | +$7 | +9% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $45 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $7 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | -16% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? | May 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 13 | $20 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11? | Apr 12 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 10 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 09 | $15 | +$14 | +95% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? | Apr 06 | $3 | $0 | -6% |
| TikTok sale announced before April? | Apr 02 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the SPD be part of the next German government? | Mar 28 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 27 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -5.1% | -14.1% | 30% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -3.9% | -13.1% | 36% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -3.9% | -13.1% | 36% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 22 | -3.1% | -12.3% | 45% | 5% | -7.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.3% | 5% | -7.4% |
| 10% | -20.7% | 5% | -16.3% |
| 15% | -28.4% | 5% | -24.4% |
| 20% | -35.4% | 5% | -31.8% |