Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc3df…9945 sports 766 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,068 (-1%) realized −$2,530 · open −$2,538
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%376W / 386L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,265per market
Trades / day105.1pace
Fees−$14,693est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$5,383now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$26,240
other 3% −$745
crypto 1% −$417
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 224 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 48% -9.5%
≤30d 762 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 48% -11.6%
≤90d 762 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 48% -11.6%
all 762 -9.6% -18.2% 49% 48% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover105.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 48% -11.6%
10% -26.0% 45% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -33.2% 41% -27.7%
20% -39.7% 32% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$760 vs −$805 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$5,383
Realized−$2,530
Unrealized−$2,538
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses376 / 386
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$14,693
Open positions4
Markets (closed)762 / 766
History coverage25d
Avg bet$1,265
Trades / day105.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 762 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 53¢ 64¢ $2,500 $3,030 +$530 (+21%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $2,414 $2,345 −$70 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 37¢ 34¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 55¢ $3,000 $3 −$2,997 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 289 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,629 +$1,542 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,223 +$2,040 +167%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7,830 −$5,447 -70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $2,119 +$876 +41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8,106 −$5,779 -71%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5,745 −$1,917 -33%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $608 +$512 +84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $305 +$363 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,517 −$59 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $812 −$800 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1,960 +$1,117 +57%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,416 +$900 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $7,017 −$615 -9%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $1,112 +$581 +52%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $711 +$810 +114%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $1,225 −$1,200 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16,736 +$4,293 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $495 +$1,162 +235%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,008 −$13 -1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,010 +$464 +46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,219 −$1,200 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 +$728 +238%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,206 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $807 +$354 +44%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $813 +$955 +117%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5,152 +$2,578 +50%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,723 +$1,434 +83%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $204 +$421 +206%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,418 −$595 -42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,318 −$1,300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,799 −$109 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,411 +$515 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,027 +$1,176 +58%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5,764 −$2,089 -36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,035 −$2,000 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1,425 +$1,510 +106%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $910 +$521 +57%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $609 −$14 -2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1,718 −$1,700 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $915 +$1,165 +127%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,627 +$1,625 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 60¢ $304 13m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $1,111 15m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 56¢ $203 23m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 56¢ $203 23m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $102 27m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $3,262 33m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $7 36m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2,449 39m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $611 40m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $606 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $408 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 38¢ $306 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $204 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $204 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2,024 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $2,383 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $3,040 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,995 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $2,327 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 24¢ $1,120 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,119 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 61¢ $1,459 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $2,708 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 54¢ $2,708 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $7,830 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $1,517 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 50¢ $710 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $102 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,383.16 · official $5,383.16 (match) · 2792 history records