Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3e0…106e other 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$87 (-5%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate57%34W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$230
14 days−$230
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$273
sports 20% +$67
crypto 12% +$2
world 10% +$22
economics 1% +$1
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 29% -32.3%
≤30d 17 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 35% -23.3%
≤90d 26 -18.1% -25.9% 46% 31% -23.3%
all 60 -7.6% -16.4% 57% 32% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 32% -15.8%
10% -24.4% 23% -23.9%
15% -31.7% 17% -31.2%
20% -38.4% 12% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses34 / 26
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)60 / 65
History coverage590d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $237 −$110 -47%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 +$2 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $247 −$146 -59%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 Jun 15 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $29 −$4 -12%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 25 $110 +$28 +26%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 06 $5 −$3 -61%
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale? May 02 $21 −$20 -98%
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $6 −$5 -81%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? Apr 02 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Mar 21 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $7 −$6 -89%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Robinhood be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Feb 24 $32 −$7 -22%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Feb 23 $1 $0 -30%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 23 $4 −$1 -32%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $78 +$9 +11%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $10 +$1 +6%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $25 +$14 +57%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 16 $5 −$2 -45%
Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between Jan 09 $5 −$2 -35%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 07 $5 −$1 -14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $208 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 04 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 04 $1 +$1 +52%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 28 $100 +$6 +6%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 23 $101 −$1 -1%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 11 $15 +$2 +15%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $1 $0 +4%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $2 $0 -23%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 24 $1 +$1 +45%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 11 $6 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 26m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 28m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY $10 54m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $123 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $104 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $23 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Por BUY 13¢ $10 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $53 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 40¢ $6 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 62¢ $10 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $102 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 2d
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $47 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.64 · official $75.64 · 250 history records