Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc3e0…fc2d
crypto · 185 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,064 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,068 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$77
Realized−$2,068
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses56 / 125
Open positions4
Markets (closed)181 / 185
History coverage96d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 4 History 181 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$141
14 days−$141
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $150 −$148 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 06 $22 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 06 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 06 $60 −$35 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 06 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 06 $30 +$58 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$7 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 06 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 06 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 06 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 06 $35 +$14 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 06 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 06 $25 −$23 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 05 $20 −$18 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 05 $10 +$11 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 05 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 05 $45 +$22 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 05 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 05 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 05 $20 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 05 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 05 $42 −$37 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 05 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 05 $34 +$19 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 05 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 05 $95 +$41 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 05 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 05 $50 −$17 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 05 $160 −$88 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 04 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 04 $150 −$3 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 30 $25 −$23 -91%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 30 $25 −$23 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 28 $70 −$16 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 28 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 28 $95 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1? Mar 28 $191 −$127 -66%
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1? Mar 28 $250 −$187 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$1,314
finance 12% −$592
other 4% −$154
world 1% −$40
sports 0% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 49m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $31 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 52m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $12 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 6h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 27h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 43h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $7 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $10 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $29 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $25 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $25 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $23 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $20 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $15 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $73 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.2% -16.1% 60% 60% -78.4%
≤30d 5 -7.2% -16.1% 60% 60% -78.4%
≤90d 142 -35.9% -42.0% 31% 27% -42.4%
all 181 -23.2% -30.5% 31% 28% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 28% -31.8%
10% -37.2% 22% -38.4%
15% -43.2% 22% -44.3%
20% -48.8% 17% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.81 · official $77.64 (match) · 495 history records