Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3e5…9abd sports 5 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-12%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -26.2% -33.3% 20% 20% -22.2%
≤30d 5 -26.2% -33.3% 20% 20% -22.2%
≤90d 5 -26.2% -33.3% 20% 20% -22.2%
all 5 -26.2% -33.3% 20% 20% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 20% -22.2%
10% -39.7% 20% -29.7%
15% -45.5% 20% -36.5%
20% -50.8% 20% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$31 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $64 +$73 +115%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $47 −$41 -88%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $86 −$35 -41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $151 −$25 -17%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $25 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL South Africa 12¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $126 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $151 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL South Africa 46¢ $45 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 48¢ $21 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $44 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $47 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 6d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 63¢ $65 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records