Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3e6…5d2b sports 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,770 (-2%) realized −$1,800 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%88W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$618per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$124
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$966
sports 10% −$254
world 2% −$531
other 1% +$286
crypto 1% −$216
economics 0% −$24
culture 0% +$32
tech 0% −$50
finance 0% −$50
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +35.3% +22.5% 100% 100% +22.5%
≤30d 9 +58.7% +43.5% 56% 56% -5.1%
≤90d 19 -7.4% -16.2% 37% 37% -41.0%
all 140 -4.5% -13.6% 63% 60% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 60% -11.4%
10% -21.8% 39% -19.9%
15% -29.4% 22% -27.6%
20% -36.3% 7% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$85 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$430
Realized−$1,800
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses88 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)140 / 143
History coverage624d
Avg bet$618
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $290 $332 +$42 (+14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 11¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$124 +414%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $300 −$93 -31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +197%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $145 −$56 -38%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$36 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $200 −$54 -27%
Iran leadership change by March 31? May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? May 14 $86 −$86 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? May 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? May 14 $250 −$219 -88%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? May 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 01 $100 +$14 +14%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa May 01 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $100 +$192 +192%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $9 −$6 -64%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 27 $50 −$49 -98%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 27 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 24 $136 +$164 +121%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 11 $643 +$79 +12%
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker? Sep 11 $50 −$45 -91%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025? Jul 06 $10 +$13 +133%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Cit Jul 04 $50 −$50 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jul 04 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jul 04 $150 +$25 +17%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 13 $50 +$13 +27%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jun 03 $50 +$38 +75%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder May 26 $100 +$35 +35%
Pacers vs. Bucks May 16 $135 −$35 -26%
Celtics vs. Magic May 16 $100 +$37 +37%
Hawks vs. Bucks Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks Apr 02 $50 +$16 +31%
Heat vs. 76ers Apr 02 $50 +$17 +33%
Raptors vs. 76ers Apr 02 $50 +$19 +38%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Apr 02 $50 +$23 +46%
Celtics vs. Spurs Apr 02 $100 +$16 +16%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Apr 02 $100 +$21 +21%
Pacers vs. Thunder Apr 02 $100 +$24 +24%
Knicks vs. Bucks Apr 02 $100 +$27 +27%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Cavaliers Mar 29 $35 +$4 +12%
Pacers vs. Wizards Mar 29 $50 +$10 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 73¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 27¢ $10 9d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 12d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $78 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $76 13d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 14d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $100 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $100 26d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $100 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $96 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $79 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $145 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $146 38d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $90 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 48d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 52d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $50 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $429.85 · official $429.85 (match) · 393 history records