Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3e7…d1ce other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$9
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$31
world 6% $0
tech 5% −$5
sports 4% −$2
economics 3% $0
politics 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.4% -16.2% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 12 -3.7% -12.9% 33% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 23 -13.7% -21.9% 35% 9% -15.3%
all 33 -11.4% -19.9% 48% 12% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 12% -12.9%
10% -27.5% 6% -21.2%
15% -34.5% 6% -28.9%
20% -40.9% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage106d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 27 $30 $0 -2%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J Jun 27 $40 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Jun 22 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $7 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 18 $69 −$5 -8%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 18 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $64 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $77 +$9 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 12 $10 −$8 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $17 +$7 +41%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $46 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $49 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $43 −$13 -30%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Mar 30 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 27 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Mar 25 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $51 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $48 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 19 $13 −$7 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 16 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $40 +$7 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 58¢ $29 1h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 59¢ $30 3h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J SELL No 84¢ $40 5h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–J BUY No 84¢ $40 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 4d
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? SELL No 19¢ $11 5d
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY No 21¢ $13 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $17 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 7d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF SELL Yes 54¢ $7 9d
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF BUY Yes 55¢ $7 9d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL No 63¢ $61 9d
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA SELL No 66¢ $13 9d
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 70¢ $14 9d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL No 63¢ $2 10d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 10d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY No 69¢ $69 10d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia SELL Yes 40¢ $27 11d
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 40¢ $28 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 13d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $53 13d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 13d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $59 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.22 · official $48.22 (match) · 129 history records