Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:18:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc3e8…82d1 crypto 547 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+2%) realized +$180 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%258W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$66
sports 13% −$224
other 11% +$120
finance 1% +$60
world 0% −$3
politics 0% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 50% +11.4%
≤30d 4 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 50% -23.9%
≤90d 361 -8.0% -16.8% 47% 45% -10.4%
all 542 -5.1% -14.2% 48% 44% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 44% -9.2%
10% -22.4% 41% -17.9%
15% -29.9% 35% -25.8%
20% -36.8% 29% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$180
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses258 / 284
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)542 / 547
History coverage242d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 43¢ 45¢ $39 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-9%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Yes 34¢ 6¢ $78 $15 −$63 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 18 $12 +$9 +73%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? May 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $2 +$2 +107%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 13 $18 +$4 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 12 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 03 $2 $0 +8%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 01 $14 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 01 $17 +$6 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 01 $15 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2? May 01 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 01 $12 +$43 +349%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 01 $11 +$3 +26%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? May 01 $29 +$158 +556%
1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5) May 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10PM ET May 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin above 77,000 on April 30, 11PM ET? May 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 01 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 01 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 01 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11PM ET May 01 $29 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 01 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 01 $6 +$17 +293%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 01 $11 +$7 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above 76,800 on April 30, 10PM ET? May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 01 $24 +$12 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 01 $13 +$11 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5 May 01 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 01 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 01 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8PM ET May 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 8PM ET May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 01 $6 +$10 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5 May 01 $15 +$15 +97%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 43¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $27 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $73 5h
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 2¢ $3 5d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 2¢ $2 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 71¢ $11 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? SELL No 79¢ $11 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? BUY No 68¢ $10 29d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? SELL No 83¢ $23 41d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? BUY No 65¢ $18 42d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? SELL No 74¢ $15 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? BUY No 56¢ $12 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 52d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $4 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $0 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $8 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $23 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $7 54d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $11 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.95 · official $134.35 (match) · 1513 history records