Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3e8…ab35 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$524 (+3%) realized +$524 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,549
7 days−$2,166
14 days−$2,166
30 days−$2,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$2,926
other 17% −$836
crypto 8% −$1,548
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 42% -26.7%
≤30d 43 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 42% -26.7%
≤90d 43 -16.5% -24.4% 42% 42% -26.7%
all 48 -11.0% -19.5% 48% 48% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 48% -6.9%
10% -27.2% 46% -15.8%
15% -34.2% 40% -23.9%
20% -40.7% 33% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$505) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$264 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$524
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage247d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $203 +$28 +14%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 +$126 +62%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $406 −$400 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$252 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $204 +$296 +146%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO1) Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 16 $305 −$305 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $508 −$508 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Jun 16 $149 −$149 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 −$304 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$161 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $202 +$107 +53%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$201 +99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 +$231 +114%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 +$472 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$7 -3%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$74 +73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$145 +72%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $508 +$499 +98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $307 +$847 +276%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $202 +$88 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $244 +$256 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $204 +$309 +152%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 25 $2,775 +$876 +32%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $1,778 +$997 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 09 $1,298 +$480 +37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $996 +$302 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 15 $199 +$53 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 54¢ $232 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 9h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $203 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $202 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $203 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $203 13h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $203 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $202 31h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $304 31h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 32h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 33h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 34h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $204 34h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 99¢ $309 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $404 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $434 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $202 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $202 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $203 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 42¢ $197 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $203 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $979 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 93¢ $175 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $348 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records