Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc3ea…0b4f sports 912 markets active 5h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%423W / 386L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day53.2pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$64
14 days−$13
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$5
other 8% +$18
world 7% +$17
politics 3% $0
culture 1% −$33
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 372 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 52% -4.8%
≤30d 809 -1.2% -10.7% 52% 50% -9.9%
≤90d 809 -1.2% -10.7% 52% 50% -9.9%
all 809 -1.2% -10.7% 52% 50% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 50% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 44% -18.5%
15% -27.0% 38% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 33% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses423 / 386
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions103
Markets (closed)809 / 912
History coverage20d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day53.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 103 History 809 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 14¢ 87¢ $3 $16 +$13 (+518%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 15¢ 40¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+170%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 77¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 30¢ 63¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+110%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 83¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ 98¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+93%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 24¢ 48¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+98%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 54¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 93¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 90¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 90¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 36¢ 56¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+54%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 85¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 343 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $3 +$2 +75%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $2 +$5 +188%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +11%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $3 +$2 +72%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $6 +$2 +29%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $2 +$5 +194%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $2 +$4 +146%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $2 −$1 -23%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $2 +$3 +108%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $3 +$2 +44%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $7 −$2 -35%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $2 +$3 +127%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -96%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $2 +$6 +226%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 36¢ $3 5h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $2 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 63¢ $3 5h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $3 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 58¢ $3 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $3 6h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 37¢ $3 8h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $3 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $2 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 51¢ $3 9h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $3 10h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 62¢ $3 10h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 93¢ $5 10h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 44¢ $1 10h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 44¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $3 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 10h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 54¢ $3 11h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $3 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 14¢ $2 13h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 78¢ $4 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $3 14h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 50¢ $2 14h
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 14h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 56¢ $3 14h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 46¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.81 · official $345.82 (match) · 1467 history records