Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:05:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3ed…9f79 sports 51 markets active 15h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58,919 (-23%) realized −$58,919 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,069per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2,342est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$19,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21,944
7 days−$55,706
14 days−$64,908
30 days−$64,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$30,808
other 32% −$22,846
world 2% −$5,282
crypto 2% −$5,104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -12.8% -21.1% 35% 35% -33.6%
≤30d 51 -12.4% -20.8% 39% 39% -31.9%
≤90d 51 -12.4% -20.8% 39% 39% -31.9%
all 51 -12.4% -20.8% 39% 39% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 39% -31.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 39% -38.5%
15% -35.3% 39% -44.4%
20% -41.6% 39% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$6,323) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,414 vs −$4,914 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$19,524
Realized−$58,919
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2,342
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5,069
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $8,155 −$8,155 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $7,741 −$7,741 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 22 $5,134 −$5,134 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,078 +$7,000 +227%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $2,057 +$7,524 +366%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $8,697 +$7,111 +82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $11,040 −$11,040 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 21 $11,509 −$11,509 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10,488 +$6,155 +59%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 19 $4,151 −$4,151 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4,324 −$4,324 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $7,584 −$528 -7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $5,708 −$5,708 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5,086 +$3,388 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,095 −$5,095 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,121 −$5,121 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10,158 −$10,158 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,390 +$5,326 +99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $15,603 +$10,236 +66%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,374 −$5,374 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10,170 −$10,170 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,290 +$4,412 +342%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,282 −$5,282 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,586 +$6,414 +179%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 16 $2,014 −$2,014 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2,487 −$2,487 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2,581 −$2,581 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $4,136 +$2,325 +56%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 16 $5,080 −$5,080 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,263 −$5,263 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $3,587 −$3,587 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $9,302 +$4,982 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,104 −$5,104 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8,427 +$5,025 +60%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $5,461 +$5,243 +96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,489 +$1,954 +78%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5,891 +$4,441 +75%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6,323 −$6,323 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,094 −$5,094 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5,094 −$5,094 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $3,076 −$3,076 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $3,051 −$3,051 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,053 +$2,120 +69%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 11 $1,022 +$1,353 +132%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 09 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $1,020 +$935 +92%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 09 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 09 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2,036 +$1,474 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $3,078 14h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2,057 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $8,155 17h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $8,697 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $11,040 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $11,509 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $7,741 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5,134 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $3,049 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $7,438 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $7,056 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $7,584 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $4,151 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4,324 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $5,708 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5,095 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5,086 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $10,716 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $5,390 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $5,121 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $10,158 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $25,839 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $15,603 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $5,374 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $10,170 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $5,282 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,290 6d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $4,136 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $3,586 6d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $9,302 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,523.81 · official $19,523.81 (match) · 106 history records