Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc3ee…31ae
weather · 933 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$138 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$139 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$350
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses823 / 97
Open positions13
Markets (closed)920 / 933
History coverage27d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day127.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 920 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$34
14 days−$128
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 97¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$28 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 96% −$77
politics 4% −$51
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $25 46m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 289 +1.3% -8.4% 96% 1% -10.1%
≤30d 920 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 8% -10.3%
≤90d 920 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 8% -10.3%
all 920 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover127.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 8% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 3% -18.9%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.7%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.41 · official $350.21 (match) · 3500 history records