Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3ee…3368 weather 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-9%) realized −$33 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%37W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$2
14 days−$35
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$44
sports 18% −$10
other 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$2
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -4.1% -13.3% 36% 34% -10.1%
≤30d 96 -6.6% -15.5% 39% 36% -16.6%
≤90d 96 -6.6% -15.5% 39% 36% -16.6%
all 96 -6.6% -15.5% 39% 36% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 36% -16.6%
10% -23.6% 36% -24.6%
15% -31.0% 34% -31.9%
20% -37.7% 30% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses37 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)96 / 103
History coverage17d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $66 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$14 -66%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$26 +148%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$11 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +165%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $9 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$20 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$5 +242%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -51%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $3 +$4 +129%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +91%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$7 +337%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $2 −$2 -92%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$7 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $6 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 22¢ $18 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 29¢ $5 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 29¢ $21 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 20¢ $7 36h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 38h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 43h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 44h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 46h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.63 · official $32.63 (match) · 301 history records