Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3f0…ea0d other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$6
other 32% −$6
politics 17% +$1
tech 6% +$1
culture 5% $0
sports 2% +$2
crypto 2% −$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 5 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 19 -1.4% -10.8% 32% 0% -10.8%
all 52 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -10.3%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage290d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $26 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $16 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $23 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $6 $0 +5%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 22 $23 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $39 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $23 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $24 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $25 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $29 −$4 -15%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $15 $0 +2%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Feb 03 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $36 −$6 -18%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Dec 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Washington vs. UCLA Nov 24 $8 +$2 +28%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $1 $0 +27%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $8 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jeremy Allen White win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a C Sep 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 13 $3 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 12 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Elon tweet between 280 and 299 times September 5–12? Sep 12 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 09 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $23 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $23 3d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $23 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $23 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $23 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $23 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $23 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $23 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $24 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $20 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $3 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $25 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $25 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $4 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $24 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 31d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $17 32d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $15 32d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $31 32d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 32d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records