Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc3f1…5ea0 sports 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$858 (+8%) realized +$858 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%41W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$220
7 days−$492
14 days+$940
30 days−$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$794
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -30.9% -37.5% 39% 39% -28.0%
≤30d 75 -31.4% -38.0% 33% 32% -13.5%
≤90d 100 -14.7% -22.8% 41% 39% -3.1%
all 100 -14.7% -22.8% 41% 39% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 39% -3.1%
10% -30.2% 38% -12.3%
15% -36.9% 33% -20.8%
20% -43.1% 28% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$69 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$858
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses41 / 59
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage58d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $202 +$87 +43%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Jun 24 $24 +$29 +118%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $215 +$117 +54%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $200 −$10 -5%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $99 +$37 +37%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P Jun 19 $71 +$51 +72%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $305 +$291 +96%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $151 +$37 +24%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $142 −$142 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $248 −$237 -96%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $295 +$316 +107%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $61 +$74 +121%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $138 +$243 +177%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $301 +$147 +49%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$2 -8%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -91%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 12 $254 +$297 +117%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $31 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $304 +$288 +95%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $54 −$42 -77%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $89 +$8 +9%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $81 +$156 +193%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $124 −$124 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $301 +$220 +73%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $181 +$336 +186%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $102 +$105 +103%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $232 +$117 +50%
Counter-Strike: Oldboys vs VP.Future 2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Oldboys vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Map Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs against All authority (+1.5) Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $288 1h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 100¢ $53 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $50 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $152 2h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner SELL Walczaki 100¢ $332 2h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 45¢ $24 3h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 64¢ $215 3h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 50¢ $190 18h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 51¢ $50 18h
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 51¢ $150 18h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $136 19h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY OG 72¢ $99 20h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 29¢ $41 25h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 69¢ $25 3d
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 14¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P SELL ReThink 99¢ $122 4d
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY ReThink 57¢ $71 4d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL Hive 100¢ $596 5d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 83¢ $5 5d
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 50¢ $300 5d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 99¢ $188 5d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 79¢ $151 5d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 45¢ $5 6d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $243 6d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 58¢ $300 6d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 99¢ $611 7d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 47¢ $295 7d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $203 8d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $142 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 52¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records