Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3f4…9277 world 53 markets active 6h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$6
other 25% −$1
politics 22% $0
economics 9% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.7% -8.9% 40% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 7% -10.0%
all 51 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage326d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $46 −$3 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $37 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $21 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $42 −$2 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Aug 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5? Aug 05 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 05 $54 $0 -1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $64 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $43 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $46 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $42 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $0 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $44 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $44 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $5.38 (match) · 162 history records