Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3f4…ea09 politics 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$15
politics 39% −$23
sports 13% −$45
crypto 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -3.2% -12.4% 8% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 2% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 1% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage131d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $438 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $662 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $204 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $221 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $213 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $243 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $447 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $222 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $473 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $413 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $175 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $382 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $176 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $195 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $183 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $189 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $264 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $211 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $227 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $251 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $232 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $241 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $429 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 18d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 18d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 19d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 19d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 20d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 20d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 21d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 22d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $204 25d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 25d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $213 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $213 26d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $243 27d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $243 27d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 27d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 28d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $222 28d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $222 28d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $197 29d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $197 29d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $180 29d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $180 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 412 history records