Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc3f5…b09c other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,315 (-2%) realized −$2,317 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$998per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$8
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1,961
politics 36% −$50
sports 14% −$301
culture 7% −$11
world 1% −$4
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 -1.7% -11.0% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 124 -7.9% -16.7% 12% 7% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 7% -11.2%
10% -24.6% 7% -19.7%
15% -31.9% 6% -27.5%
20% -38.6% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,454) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$27 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$2,317
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage133d
Avg bet$998
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $498 $499 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,130 −$2 -0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $1,641 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,558 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $2,367 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,065 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,899 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,837 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 04 $234 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 04 $328 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,811 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,813 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $274 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,804 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,336 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $803 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $811 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $2,887 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,613 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,454 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,075 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,435 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,461 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,718 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $3,164 −$3 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,402 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $2,708 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,275 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $381 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $382 4h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $383 7h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $384 9h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $383 28h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $383 31h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $384 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $384 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $384 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $385 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $384 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $385 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $386 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $387 8d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $498 11d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $359 13d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $359 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $881 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $883 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $885 14d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $886 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $777 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $778 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $773 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $775 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $781 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $782 20d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $669 21d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $670 21d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $813 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.44 · official $499.44 (match) · 450 history records