Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C3 0xc3f6…bab8 sports 376 markets active 19h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-0%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%205W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$385est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$126
7 days−$27
14 days−$209
30 days+$662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$864
other 2% +$482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +14.5% +3.6% 62% 62% -10.5%
≤30d 59 +14.3% +3.4% 59% 59% -0.7%
≤90d 355 +2.7% -7.1% 54% 53% -12.5%
all 376 +4.6% -5.3% 55% 54% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 54% -10.4%
10% -14.4% 53% -19.0%
15% -22.7% 51% -26.8%
20% -30.3% 45% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$91 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses205 / 171
Est. fees paid−$385
Open positions0
Markets (closed)376 / 376
History coverage92d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 376 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $101 +$84 +83%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Mia Jun 24 $203 +$168 +83%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To Jun 23 $71 +$75 +105%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $81 +$59 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $132 +$133 +101%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 21 $46 +$33 +73%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $99 +$104 +105%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $49 +$51 +105%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 20 $234 −$230 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $71 +$61 +86%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $95 +$82 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $167 +$104 +62%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $38 −$38 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$99 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $142 +$113 +79%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $253 −$250 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $84 +$79 +93%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $203 +$168 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $142 +$105 +74%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $149 −$147 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $206 −$203 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $53 +$51 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $146 −$144 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $161 −$159 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $69 −$68 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $126 +$104 +83%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $121 +$205 +169%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $100 +$76 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $182 +$163 +90%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $159 −$157 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $142 −$140 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $203 +$155 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $65 +$63 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $127 −$125 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $137 +$109 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $183 +$164 +90%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $95 +$75 +79%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 06 $351 −$194 -55%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $30 +$28 +93%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 05 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $91 +$58 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $203 18h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Mia BUY No 54¢ $203 30h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To BUY Yes 48¢ $71 43h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Jenson Brooksby 57¢ $81 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $101 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 49¢ $132 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 48¢ $99 4d
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 40¢ $234 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY Yes 53¢ $41 5d
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 53¢ $71 5d
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Dallas Wings 46¢ $102 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $46 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 54¢ $38 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 63¢ $202 6d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $95 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $167 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $101 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $101 6d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $253 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $142 7d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $92 7d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 51¢ $84 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $61 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $203 7d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $142 8d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 33¢ $34 9d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 47¢ $71 9d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $149 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $206 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 882 history records