Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C3 0xc3f8…9fae other 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+4%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%34W / 28L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$90
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$91
other 48% +$59
sports 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -14.2% -22.4% 49% 45% -2.4%
≤30d 62 -6.4% -15.4% 55% 50% -0.5%
≤90d 62 -6.4% -15.4% 55% 50% -0.5%
all 62 -6.4% -15.4% 55% 50% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 50% -0.5%
10% -23.5% 44% -10.0%
15% -30.9% 39% -18.7%
20% -37.6% 27% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage11d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $65 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $101 −$71 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $77 −$16 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $128 +$43 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $52 +$95 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 26 $15 $0 -1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$4 -58%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$20 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -5%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$19 +61%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$22 +108%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $15 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records