Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3f8…5ee2 politics 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$10
sports 23% −$2
economics 12% −$2
world 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -7.9% -16.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -7.9% -16.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -7.9% -16.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 39 -3.7% -12.9% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage167d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $219 $219 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $619 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $218 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2 $0 -21%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $160 −$1 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -19%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $200 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $447 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $120 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 19 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $320 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 14 $497 −$1 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $417 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $498 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 55m
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 3h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 4h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 5h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 5h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 7h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 7h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 7h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 9h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 11h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 12h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 13h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 18h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 20h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 23h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 25h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 28h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 29h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 30h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 31h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 34h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 34h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 35h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.07 · official $417.07 (match) · 122 history records