Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3fa…4531 crypto 824 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$229 (-5%) realized −$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%221W / 603L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$379
7 days−$471
14 days−$537
30 days−$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$488
crypto 17% −$62
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -6.2% -15.1% 1% 0% -22.7%
≤30d 308 -19.2% -26.9% 8% 7% -23.0%
≤90d 824 -8.0% -16.7% 27% 21% -21.3%
all 824 -8.0% -16.7% 27% 21% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 21% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 19% -28.9%
15% -32.0% 18% -35.7%
20% -38.6% 17% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses221 / 603
Open positions0
Markets (closed)824 / 824
History coverage52d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 824 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $37 −$4 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 25 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? Jun 25 $189 −$153 -81%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? Jun 25 $59 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 26? Jun 25 $34 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 25 $34 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 25 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? Jun 25 $90 −$6 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 26? Jun 25 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $21 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $344 −$40 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26? Jun 24 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26? Jun 24 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 24 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 26? Jun 24 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? Jun 24 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 26? Jun 24 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 26? Jun 24 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? Jun 24 $62 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? Jun 24 $28 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 24 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 26? Jun 24 $12 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 26? Jun 24 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? Jun 24 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? Jun 24 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 26? Jun 24 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? Jun 24 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 26? Jun 24 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 26? Jun 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26? Jun 24 $33 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 26? Jun 24 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 26? Jun 24 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 26? Jun 24 $12 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Jun 24 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 24 $184 −$101 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Jun 24 $0 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 26 Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 26? Jun 24 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? Jun 24 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? Jun 24 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 24 $56 −$7 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 26? Jun 24 $42 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? Jun 24 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 24 $6 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 13m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 14m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? SELL Yes 13¢ $36 15m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? SELL Yes 37¢ $57 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 62¢ $46 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $52 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $33 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 26? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 26? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2605 history records