trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 41 | -52.2% | -56.8% | 22% | 22% | -23.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -56.8% | 22% | -23.2% |
| 10% | -60.9% | 17% | -30.6% |
| 15% | -64.7% | 12% | -37.3% |
| 20% | -68.2% | 12% | -43.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 47¢ | 80¢ | $314 | $539 | +$224 (+71%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 11 | $51 | −$51 | -100% |
| Trump executive order ending Department of Education by Thursday? | Mar 22 | $258 | +$42 | +16% |
| Will Donald Trump issue 50-74 executive orders in his first week? | Mar 20 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Trump issue 30-34 executive orders on Day 1? | Mar 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump issue 35-39 executive orders on Day 1? | Mar 20 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? | Mar 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? | Mar 20 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Rams vs. Eagles | Mar 20 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | Mar 20 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? | Feb 24 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 26? | Jan 21 | $1 | +$1 | +130% |
| Texans vs. Chiefs | Jan 19 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31? | Jan 19 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? | Jan 19 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? | Jan 16 | $29 | +$42 | +144% |
| Israel announces ceasefire by January 16? | Jan 16 | $10 | +$7 | +67% |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in December? | Jan 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Raptors | Jan 16 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Trudeau resigns before February? | Jan 16 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt | Jan 16 | $13 | −$7 | -52% |
| Vikings vs. Rams | Jan 16 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Wizards | Jan 16 | $11 | −$10 | -86% |
| Pistons vs. Knicks | Jan 14 | $158 | −$14 | -9% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | Jan 13 | $38 | −$38 | -100% |
| Chargers vs. Patriots | Jan 13 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Steelers vs. Ravens | Jan 13 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Texas Tech vs. Arkansas | Jan 13 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Chargers vs. Texans | Jan 13 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Broncos vs. Bengals | Jan 13 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Bills vs. Lions | Jan 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend? | Jan 13 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend? | Jan 13 | $42 | −$42 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Mavericks | Jan 13 | $12 | +$48 | +413% |
| Packers vs. Eagles | Jan 13 | $332 | +$58 | +18% |
| Broncos vs. Bills | Jan 13 | $275 | +$70 | +26% |
| Lana Del Rey divorce in 2025? | Jan 04 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Syracuse vs. Washington State | Dec 28 | $8 | +$2 | +33% |
| Seahawks vs. Bears | Dec 27 | $14 | +$8 | +59% |
| RFK Jr. endorses Trump during Friday address? | Nov 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | Nov 18 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 18 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |