Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C3 0xc3fb…0dd7 other 62 markets active 3h ago coverage 9d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$600 (+20%) realized +$576 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%30W / 27L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$519
14 days+$544
30 days+$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$244
sports 45% +$325
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +43.1% +29.4% 53% 51% +9.8%
≤30d 57 +40.2% +26.8% 53% 51% +10.0%
≤90d 57 +40.2% +26.8% 53% 51% +10.0%
all 57 +40.2% +26.8% 53% 51% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.8% 51% +10.0%
10% +14.7% 51% -0.5%
15% +3.6% 42% -10.1%
20% -6.6% 35% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$26 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized+$576
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses30 / 27
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions5
Markets (closed)57 / 62
History coverage9d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $125 $128 +$3 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 67¢ 68¢ $67 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $58 $56 −$2 (-3%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 −$2 -4%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $202 +$72 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $57 +$44 +78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 −$5 -20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $88 +$26 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$36 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$18 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $45 +$55 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 +$21 +26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 −$31 -59%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 +$15 +28%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$9 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $65 +$35 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $80 +$22 +27%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $41 +$51 +126%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$38 +62%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 +$60 +152%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$70 +238%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 −$2 -4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 +$77 +344%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$91 +1164%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$70 -69%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$55 -54%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$35 +226%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 +$8 +29%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 +$162 +428%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$15 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $16 +$23 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $126 6h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 67¢ $68 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 32h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $202 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 35h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $70 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 22¢ $21 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 43¢ $24 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $25 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $79 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 19¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.63 · official $494.64 (match) · 120 history records