Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3fc…d77c world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$5
other 8% $0
politics 6% $0
weather 3% −$8
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.2% -15.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 +2.2% -7.5% 55% 9% -8.1%
≤90d 11 +2.2% -7.5% 55% 9% -8.1%
all 25 -0.7% -10.2% 64% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 4% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 4% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage477d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $2 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $7 +$2 +38%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 27 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 24 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 24 $4 $0 +2%
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded? Apr 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on March 4? Mar 03 $13 −$8 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $45 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $45 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $41 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $9 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $40 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $19 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $19 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $9 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $0 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $4 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $36 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records