Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc3fc…5176 sports 1140 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,294 (-2%) realized −$9,171 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%525W / 613L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$1,172est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,612
7 days−$6,524
14 days−$5,927
30 days+$1,294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$28,125
other 30% +$17,954
world 0% +$225
crypto 0% +$952
finance 0% −$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -19.6% -27.3% 31% 31% -36.8%
≤30d 85 -0.5% -10.0% 41% 41% -6.4%
≤90d 377 -2.5% -11.8% 44% 44% -8.0%
all 1138 -6.3% -15.3% 46% 44% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 44% -11.0%
10% -23.4% 41% -19.6%
15% -30.8% 36% -27.3%
20% -37.6% 31% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$667) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$429 vs −$384 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized−$9,171
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses525 / 613
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,172
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1138 / 1140
History coverage210d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1,000 $880 −$120 (-12%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 50¢ $116 $113 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $63 +$54 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $446 +$794 +178%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $64 −$63 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $196 −$193 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $484 $0 -0%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $408 +$404 +99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,081 −$1,081 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $106 −$53 -50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $414 +$103 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $119 +$206 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $857 +$1,593 +186%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $393 −$393 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 +$30 +67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $220 +$211 +96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $597 −$597 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,055 +$1,123 +106%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $369 +$214 +58%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $497 −$494 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $325 +$508 +156%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,156 +$951 +82%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $553 −$248 -45%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $348 +$214 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $673 +$424 +63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $706 −$706 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $264 −$264 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,397 −$1,397 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $143 +$204 +142%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $640 +$202 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$102 +1011%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $252 −$250 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 11 $108 −$108 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 11 $183 −$183 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 11 $251 −$251 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 11 $149 −$149 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 11 $353 −$353 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $334 −$334 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $235 −$235 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 11 $173 −$173 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 11 $613 −$613 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $575 −$575 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $816 −$816 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $401 −$401 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $118 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $72 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $115 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $55 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $109 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $8 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $19 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $63 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $64 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $98 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $98 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 55¢ $42 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 55¢ $41 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 55¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $992.66 · official $992.66 (match) · 3387 history records