Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3fd…e920 other 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$107 (-0%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 27% −$23
culture 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$43
economics 5% −$2
politics 4% −$3
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 90 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 184 -0.4% -9.9% 2% 0% -9.8%
all 257 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage139d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $744 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $141 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $265 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $395 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $393 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $412 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $271 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $273 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $215 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $123 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $73 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $181 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 8h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 10h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 11h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 12h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $31 14h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $31 15h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 20h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $31 21h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $31 23h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 23h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 28h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 33h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 36h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 38h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $21 38h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 40h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $31 42h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 42h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 44h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $9 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.52 · official $30.52 (match) · 1480 history records