Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:42:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C3 0xc3fd…e116 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$1
world 35% $0
crypto 9% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 40 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage471d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $28 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $27 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $12 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $27 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jul 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 28 $11 $0 -4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 10 $11 $0 -4%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on May 9? May 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? May 06 $12 $0 +3%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $28 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 30h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $28 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $27 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $27 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $24 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $24 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $13 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $17 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 91¢ $30 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $22 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $9 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 32d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 189d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 344d
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 SELL No 99¢ $2 344d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $9 362d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records