Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc3ff…7b5f crypto 360 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (624 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$185 (-17%) realized −$180 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%95W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day624.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (624 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 350 -40.5% -46.2% 27% 27% -36.6%
≤30d 350 -40.5% -46.2% 27% 27% -36.6%
≤90d 350 -40.5% -46.2% 27% 27% -36.6%
all 350 -40.5% -46.2% 27% 27% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover624.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.2% 27% -36.6%
10% ← realistic here -51.3% 23% -42.6%
15% -56.0% 19% -48.2%
20% -60.3% 15% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$180
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses95 / 255
Open positions9
Markets (closed)350 / 360
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day624.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 41¢ 84¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+106%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 32¢ 72¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+125%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 33¢ 28¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-15%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 40¢ 26¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-36%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 42¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Down 36¢ 74¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+107%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 29¢ 16¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-47%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 43¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 42¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Up 28¢ 9¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-67%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 0¢ 24¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Up 22¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 228 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +228%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +69%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$40 +764%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$7 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$6 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +142%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.60 · official $44.60 (match) · 761 history records