Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C4 0xc400…9cc4 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$499 (-13%) realized −$492 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$433
14 days−$433
30 days−$786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$528
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -66.5% -69.7% 33% 0% -85.6%
≤30d 8 -87.4% -88.6% 12% 0% -91.5%
≤90d 29 -26.9% -33.9% 41% 38% -23.3%
all 29 -26.9% -33.9% 41% 38% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 38% -23.3%
10% -40.2% 38% -30.6%
15% -46.0% 34% -37.3%
20% -51.3% 31% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$98 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized−$492
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage94d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Javier Reyes 63¢ 62¢ $240 $237 −$3 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Eric Nolan 43¢ 42¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $81 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $417 −$413 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $176 −$173 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $61 −$60 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $41 −$40 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $243 +$185 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 16 $135 −$133 -99%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $81 +$114 +140%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $378 +$284 +75%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $135 +$87 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 03 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 03 $41 +$38 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Apr 27 $40 +$54 +134%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 27 $40 +$34 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 27 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (Women's Flywei Apr 19 $125 +$45 +36%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $240 +$151 +63%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $240 −$240 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 05 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Shem Rock (Lightweight, P Mar 29 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Mar 29 $80 −$80 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 29 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight Mar 29 $60 +$76 +127%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M Mar 29 $300 +$70 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Eric Nolan 43¢ $122 1h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 63¢ $243 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $41 3d
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 33¢ $20 3d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 49¢ $41 3d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $135 3d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 67¢ $283 8d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 50¢ $41 17d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Bruno Silva 53¢ $61 17d
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant BUY Priscila Cachoeira 47¢ $41 17d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 50¢ $135 18d
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Zhu Kangjie 51¢ $41 25d
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww BUY Loma Lookboonmee 44¢ $41 25d
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Daniel Santos 60¢ $135 38d
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Bernardo Sopaj 56¢ $243 39d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 41¢ $41 45d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 56¢ $243 45d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 41¢ $41 45d
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) BUY Pat Sabatini 60¢ $135 45d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 57¢ $135 45d
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Vince Morales 44¢ $41 53d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Carlos Prates 51¢ $41 53d
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre BUY Alexander Hernandez 52¢ $200 59d
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, BUY Davey Grant 53¢ $40 59d
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) BUY Ryan Spann 42¢ $40 59d
UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (Women's Flywei BUY Jasmine Jasudavicius 73¢ $125 66d
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Mateusz Gamrot 61¢ $240 80d
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli BUY Guilherme Pat 49¢ $40 80d
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Chris Duncan 65¢ $240 85d
UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight BUY Yousri Belgaroui 44¢ $60 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.81 · official $352.81 (match) · 63 history records