Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc402…6693
other · 15 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
−$62 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$279
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)6 / 15
History coverage57d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 9 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+14%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 24¢ 11¢ $52 $24 −$28 (-54%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +41%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $97 +$68 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $104 −$103 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $18 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$129
sports 20% +$68
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 12d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 13d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $78 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 31d
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 24¢ $54 32d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 33d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 36d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 56d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 56d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -29.3% -36.0% 50% 50% -8.4%
≤30d 4 -22.1% -29.6% 50% 50% -22.4%
≤90d 6 -13.9% -22.1% 67% 33% -21.3%
all 6 -13.9% -22.1% 67% 33% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -21.3%
10% -29.6% 33% -28.8%
15% -36.4% 33% -35.7%
20% -42.6% 17% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.65 · official $278.66 (match) · 24 history records