Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc406…376b
other · 130 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$6 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$493
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses24 / 82
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)106 / 130
History coverage744d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 18 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $457 $463 +$6 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+52%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Yes 67¢ 14¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-79%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+119%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+43%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 21¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 25? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 5? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on April 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 10? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $2 +$4 +174%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$3 -53%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 25 $2 −$1 -66%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$5 +253%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $2 +$8 +344%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? May 18 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? May 17 $2 +$8 +550%
Exact Score: Juventus FC 2 - 1 ACF Fiorentina? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in April? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 21-27? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 12? Apr 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 12? Apr 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 12? Apr 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 12? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 12? Apr 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 12? Apr 11 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 12? Apr 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 11? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 12? Apr 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 11? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 12? Apr 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 10 Apr 10 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 11? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 10? Apr 10 $1 +$9 +899%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on April 12? Apr 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or higher on April 10? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on April 11? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on April 11? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 10? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on April 12? Apr 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on April 11? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 9? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on April 9? Apr 08 $3 +$7 +274%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 36% +$1
other 27% −$51
politics 17% +$134
world 10% −$63
weather 6% −$2
sports 3% +$8
culture 1% −$12
economics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 12¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Australia vs. Türki BUY 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $1 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 BUY 2¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 10¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 21¢ $10 2d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $7 14d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 14d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $3 17d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 19d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 25? BUY No 4¢ $0 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 25? BUY No 4¢ $1 19d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 19d
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 20d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 20d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 94¢ $8 20d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 20d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 15 +67.7% +51.8% 40% 40% +30.9%
≤90d 78 -24.9% -32.0% 19% 18% -38.1%
all 106 -22.7% -30.0% 23% 21% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 21% -7.4%
10% -36.7% 18% -16.2%
15% -42.9% 16% -24.3%
20% -48.5% 14% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.61 · official $513.62 · 1618 history records