Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc40a…aa48 sports 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$310 (-11%) realized −$373 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%37W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$304
14 days−$199
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$164
weather 37% −$125
other 11% −$15
politics 3% +$22
world 3% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -32.2% -38.7% 42% 42% -31.6%
≤30d 52 -19.9% -27.6% 46% 46% -21.2%
≤90d 81 -19.8% -27.4% 46% 44% -20.5%
all 81 -19.8% -27.4% 46% 44% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 44% -20.5%
10% -34.4% 37% -28.1%
15% -40.7% 27% -35.0%
20% -46.5% 21% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$373
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses37 / 44
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)81 / 84
History coverage90d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ 100¢ $35 $58 +$23 (+67%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 100¢ $25 $53 +$28 (+113%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 74¢ 99¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$7 +18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $35 +$27 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $25 +$7 +29%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $20 +$17 +83%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $55 +$13 +24%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $15 +$4 +27%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$12 +46%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $25 +$31 +124%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 18 $90 +$22 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $16 +$14 +86%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$9 +31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 17 $40 +$8 +19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $36 +$32 +90%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $36 +$41 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$42 +165%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $36 +$52 +146%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 11 $40 +$8 +19%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 11 $35 +$13 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $35 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $35 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $15 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $15 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 85¢ $15 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $25 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $15 6h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $35 6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $25 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $15 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $25 24h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $20 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $25 27h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 27h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 48¢ $25 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $15 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $15 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $25 27h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $25 32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 46h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $25 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $30 2d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 78¢ $15 2d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $112 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.44 · official $158.44 (match) · 255 history records