Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc40b…dc70 crypto 1391 markets active 6d ago coverage 41d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$524 (+4%) realized +$526 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate63%885W / 513L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day57.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$111
14 days−$179
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$212
sports 9% −$35
weather 8% +$18
other 4% −$80
world 0% −$4
finance 0% −$8
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -41.5% -47.1% 32% 32% -51.6%
≤30d 186 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 47% -28.8%
≤90d 1398 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 59% -12.3%
all 1398 +0.2% -9.4% 63% 59% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 59% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 47% -20.7%
15% -26.0% 35% -28.3%
20% -33.2% 24% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$526
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses885 / 513
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1398 / 1391
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day57.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 60¢ 80¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 302 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 30? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on Apr Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 2? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 2? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 1? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$11 +36%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $5 +$10 +197%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $10 +$10 +101%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $5 +$2 +31%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$16 +307%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 09 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 34¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 34¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 34¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 34¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 34¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 34¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 34¢ $5 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $5 6d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 60¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 73¢ $5 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $5 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 41¢ $5 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 50¢ $5 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $5 6d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 43¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 6d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Daria Snigur 33¢ $5 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 27¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.32 · official $13.32 (match) · 3500 history records