Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc40c…a2db
other · 115 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$67 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$65 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses17 / 98
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage108d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 0 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hornets vs. Nets Nets 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Heat Heat 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Suns vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Thunder Knicks 25¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Nuggets Jazz 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Lakers Wizards 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Lakers Knicks 59¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
76ers vs. Jazz Jazz 34¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Pelicans Pelicans 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Spurs Rockets 34¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $258 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $154 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $292 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $129 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $247 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $122 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $93 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $121 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $95 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $221 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $115 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $273 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $128 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $133 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $157 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $286 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $153 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $405 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $130 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $126 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $145 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $131 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $313 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $413 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $146 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $420 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $111 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $114 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% −$9
politics 32% −$6
sports 8% +$80
world 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $140 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $140 17d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $154 22d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $154 32d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $136 32d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $136 38d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $129 39d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $129 39d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $123 40d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $123 40d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $129 40d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $129 41d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $109 41d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $109 41d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $107 41d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $107 42d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $122 42d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $122 42d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 42d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 42d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 43d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 43d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 43d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 43d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $93 44d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $93 44d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $115 44d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -1.6% -11.0% 12% 9% -9.2%
all 115 +1.4% -8.3% 15% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 12% -9.1%
10% -17.1% 10% -17.8%
15% -25.1% 8% -25.8%
20% -32.4% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records