Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc412…592d politics 547 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35,957 (+15%) realized +$35,614 · open +$343
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate81%407W / 95L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$11,431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$7,544
politics 25% −$445
other 19% +$794
economics 5% +$108
sports 4% +$674
finance 4% +$1,060
crypto 3% +$426
culture 2% +$35
tech 2% +$527
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +18.1% +6.9% 100% 40% +6.5%
≤30d 33 +13.5% +2.6% 85% 39% -6.0%
≤90d 414 +0.1% -9.5% 80% 18% -4.4%
all 502 +3.0% -6.8% 81% 19% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 19% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 13% -14.4%
15% -23.9% 10% -22.6%
20% -31.3% 9% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$619) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$55 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.98 per $1 lost it wins $2.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$11,431
Realized+$35,614
Unrealized+$343
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses407 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions58
Markets (closed)502 / 547
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$429
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 65¢ 96¢ $833 $1,220 +$387 (+46%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $1,108 $1,176 +$68 (+6%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 90¢ 94¢ $819 $857 +$38 (+5%)
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? No 85¢ 82¢ $848 $816 −$31 (-4%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 92¢ $491 $555 +$64 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $500 +$2 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 96¢ 99¢ $478 $493 +$15 (+3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $410 $402 −$8 (-2%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%? No 99¢ 100¢ $395 $399 +$5 (+1%)
Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $390 $392 +$2 (+1%)
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $314 $355 +$40 (+13%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $309 $324 +$15 (+5%)
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $328 $323 −$5 (-2%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%? No 98¢ 100¢ $271 $278 +$7 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $276 $278 +$2 (+1%)
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $226 $227 +$2 (+1%)
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 86¢ 80¢ $232 $218 −$14 (-6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $360 $215 −$145 (-40%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $202 $209 +$6 (+3%)
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World Cup Match? No 95¢ 99¢ $190 $197 +$7 (+4%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? No 88¢ 95¢ $176 $189 +$13 (+7%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026? No 85¢ 93¢ $170 $186 +$16 (+9%)
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? No 73¢ 90¢ $125 $155 +$30 (+24%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $144 $144 −$1 (-0%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 78¢ $110 $117 +$8 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026? Jun 22 $7 −$40 -575%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $248 +$152 +61%
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the match not air? Jun 20 $199 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $298 +$52 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $915 +$89 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $72 +$28 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $582 −$582 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $131 −$131 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $260 +$4 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $56 −$20 -36%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May? Jun 07 $0 $0 -18%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b Jun 07 $2 $0 +15%
Will New York Knicks advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $6 +$8 +126%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31? Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31? Jun 07 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Trump say "Fat shot / Ozempic" during Healthcare Affordability Ev Jun 07 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Healthcare Affordability Events? Jun 07 $35 +$22 +62%
Will "Obsession" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Jun 07 $16 +$14 +89%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.75 by May 31? Jun 07 $49 +$1 +3%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
Donovan Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $40 +$57 +144%
Will Trump say "Percent" 15+ times during Healthcare Affordability Eve Jun 07 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Trump say "Autism" during Healthcare Affordability Events? Jun 07 $89 +$40 +46%
Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31? Jun 07 $156 +$4 +2%
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Jun 07 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? Jun 07 $205 +$6 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 07 $486 +$114 +24%
Will "Obsession" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Jun 07 $595 +$5 +1%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026? Jun 07 $680 +$27 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 07 $512 +$343 +67%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 07 $997 +$3 +0%
Will Sean Sweeney be the next Orlando Magic head coach? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.0% by the end of May? May 20 $45 +$4 +8%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 1.5 May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 80 on the R May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 85 on the R May 20 $2 −$2 -86%
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 75 on the R May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" score at least 70 on the R May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NB May 18 $85 −$47 -55%
Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 NBA May 18 $21 −$13 -61%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 May 18 $133 +$1 +0%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? May 17 $48 +$53 +111%
Will "Points" be said 25+ times during Eurovision? May 17 $401 +$4 +1%
Will Chuck Schumer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal May 16 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? May 16 $8 +$27 +354%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 16 $254 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 19m
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 96¢ $34 1h
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the France vs Iraq FIFA Worl BUY No 95¢ $190 1h
Will the announcers say "Adidas" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $144 1h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $105 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World BUY Yes 99¢ $276 1h
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the France vs Iraq FIFA BUY No 40¢ $8 1h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 96¢ $14 1h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World C BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the France vs Iraq FIFA World C BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 21¢ $126 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 2h
Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 9¢ $3 2h
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $178 2d
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will the match not air? BUY No 99¢ $99 3d
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 3d
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 3d
Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 3d
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,431.30 · official $11,430.46 (match) · 3500 history records