Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc413…292a other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$16
politics 16% −$5
sports 8% +$29
economics 7% −$2
culture 5% −$2
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +2.5% -7.2% 12% 10% -9.5%
all 105 +2.5% -7.2% 12% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 10% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 10% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 10% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage87d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $153 $153 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $39 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $249 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $288 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $250 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $409 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $252 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $241 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $517 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $245 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $731 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $243 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $752 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $236 −$1 -1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $424 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $257 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $250 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $461 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $423 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $261 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $399 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $485 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $240 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $430 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 6h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 24h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 31h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $153 2d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 11d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 11d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $57 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 14d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $32 15d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $32 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 16d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $41 23d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $50 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $50 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $113 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 26d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.28 · official $153.28 (match) · 299 history records