Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc414…aa7b other 144 markets active 4h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51 (-35%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%36W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$22
sports 46% −$24
culture 3% −$4
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.9% -6.0% 50% 44% -5.7%
≤30d 25 +9.4% -1.0% 44% 36% -0.9%
≤90d 55 -16.5% -24.4% 31% 27% -24.2%
all 140 -36.1% -42.2% 26% 24% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 24% -42.4%
10% -47.7% 23% -47.9%
15% -52.8% 22% -53.0%
20% -57.4% 19% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses36 / 104
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)140 / 144
History coverage236d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 $0 -20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 -4%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 +$3 +325%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1 +$2 +245%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 +$3 +300%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 24h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 24h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $2 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $1 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 23d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.90 · official $3.90 (match) · 290 history records