Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc41b…d2af other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$11
politics 26% −$7
sports 16% +$8
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 112 -3.3% -12.5% 10% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 6% -9.6%
10% -20.9% 6% -18.2%
15% -28.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -35.5% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage135d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $246 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $254 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $248 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $254 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $198 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $364 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $258 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $423 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,178 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $408 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $245 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $232 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $370 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $607 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $239 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $256 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $178 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $434 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 04 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $180 $0 -0%
Will Charl Schwartzel win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 03 $199 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $191 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $457 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $640 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $209 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $246 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 30 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 17d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 20d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $254 22d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $254 38d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $248 41d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $248 42d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 65d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 66d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 66d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $234 66d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $223 67d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $223 67d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $198 67d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $198 68d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $180 68d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $180 68d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $188 68d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $188 68d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $235 68d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $235 69d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $258 69d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $258 69d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL No 100¢ $175 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 305 history records