Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C4 0xc41d…c51d weather 528 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,947 (+10%) realized +$5,939 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate70%368W / 159L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$514
14 days+$610
30 days+$865
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$4,865
other 0% +$8
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +57.4% +42.5% 65% 52% +14.0%
≤30d 96 +34.6% +21.8% 52% 34% +4.7%
≤90d 492 +25.8% +13.8% 70% 19% -2.4%
all 527 +24.4% +12.5% 70% 20% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.5% 20% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.8% 17% -11.8%
15% -8.1% 13% -20.3%
20% -17.1% 11% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.4 per $1 lost it wins $4.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$5,939
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses368 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)527 / 528
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$118
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $98 $105 +$8 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$21 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$154 +772%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $51 +$17 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 1? Jun 15 $41 +$51 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 15 $71 −$15 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 1? Jun 15 $54 +$82 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 15 $157 +$139 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $455 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $700 +$7 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $256 +$60 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 10 $58 +$12 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 31? Jun 10 $0 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$6 +730%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$101 +696%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $56 +$31 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 05 $29 −$25 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 3? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 04 $25 +$8 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$21 +78%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 −$4 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $44 −$14 -30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $34 −$6 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $38 −$15 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 02 $21 −$17 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 2? Jun 02 $47 −$26 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 02 $22 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $33 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 1? Jun 01 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $7 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 31? May 31 $18 +$7 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 31? May 31 $23 +$11 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $51 38h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 38h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 38h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 39h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $700 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $436 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.36 · official $105.36 (match) · 3500 history records