Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:50:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc41f…2a81 other 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,943 (-10%) realized −$2,868 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%63W / 105L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$257
14 days−$257
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$1,335
sports 37% −$2,032
world 1% +$106
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -22.9% -30.2% 21% 21% -28.9%
≤30d 53 -20.0% -27.6% 28% 28% -10.2%
≤90d 160 -25.8% -32.8% 36% 32% -25.5%
all 168 -22.5% -29.9% 38% 35% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 35% -19.4%
10% -36.6% 29% -27.1%
15% -42.7% 19% -34.2%
20% -48.3% 12% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$81 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$2,868
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses63 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 170
History coverage92d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $397 +$106 +27%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $11 −$3 -29%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $64 −$53 -83%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $11 +$6 +52%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $41 −$15 -36%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $64 −$23 -35%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $21 +$25 +115%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $118 −$77 -65%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $69 −$3 -4%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $118 −$51 -43%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $118 −$49 -42%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $53 −$49 -92%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $107 −$67 -63%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -76%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $21 −$16 -76%
Peru leading at halftime? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $213 +$25 +12%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $367 +$92 +25%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -91%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $106 +$26 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $54 −$24 -45%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $48 −$45 -94%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $12 −$12 -98%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -94%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $11 −$1 -12%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $53 +$48 +91%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $27 +$30 +113%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,006 +$431 +43%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $27 −$25 -94%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $27 −$25 -94%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $27 −$25 -94%
Brazil vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $42 +$69 +164%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 06 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -94%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 06 $21 −$20 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +68%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $11 +$23 +219%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $11 +$9 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $503 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $20 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $377 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 2h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $26 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $41 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $46 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $41 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $65 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $67 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $68 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 13h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 28h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 11¢ $5 19d
Peru leading at halftime? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Peru leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $11 19d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $21 19d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 19d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $238 19d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $459 19d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $262 19d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.66 · official $25.66 (match) · 443 history records