Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:16:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc421…f250 crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate58%30W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$71
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 20% -10.1%
≤30d 22 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 27% -8.2%
≤90d 25 -5.4% -14.4% 52% 28% -8.2%
all 52 -5.0% -14.1% 58% 31% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 31% -9.6%
10% -22.3% 19% -18.3%
15% -29.8% 13% -26.2%
20% -36.7% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses30 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage144d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $147 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$30 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $112 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$40 +78%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $52 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $82 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $127 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3,736 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? May 10 $68 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 07 $1 $0 +36%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 13 $636 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $6,873 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $63 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 26 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Feb 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Feb 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 20 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 20 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 20 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Feb 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 20 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 20 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 20 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Feb 20 $8 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Feb 20 $3 +$6 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 20 $3 $0 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Feb 07 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 852 history records