Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc423…03b9 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,438 (-28%) realized −$4,438 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%19W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$1,114
14 days−$4,774
30 days−$4,774
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$5,038
sports 22% +$345
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -22.7% -30.0% 18% 18% -34.8%
≤30d 96 -25.6% -32.7% 20% 20% -32.2%
≤90d 96 -25.6% -32.7% 20% 20% -32.2%
all 96 -25.6% -32.7% 20% 20% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 20% -32.2%
10% -39.1% 20% -38.7%
15% -45.0% 20% -44.6%
20% -50.4% 19% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$133 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,438
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses19 / 77
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 106
History coverage13d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $82 −$80 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $45 −$44 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $49 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $46 −$45 -97%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $24 +$50 +204%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $25 −$24 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $66 +$295 +449%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $65 −$64 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $35 −$34 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $49 +$159 +324%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $49 −$48 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $34 +$86 +254%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $34 −$33 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $23 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 +$103 +1006%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $45 +$130 +290%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $22 −$21 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $41 +$53 +131%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 +$80 +388%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $305 +$320 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $41 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 4h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 265 history records