Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc424…61ef crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,130 (-8%) realized −$3,130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,756per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$328est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$2,482
crypto 35% −$4,588
other 3% −$1,165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -41.8% -47.3% 33% 33% -23.3%
≤30d 23 -2.2% -11.6% 48% 48% -28.1%
≤90d 23 -2.2% -11.6% 48% 48% -28.1%
all 23 -2.2% -11.6% 48% 48% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 48% -28.1%
10% -20.0% 48% -35.0%
15% -27.7% 35% -41.3%
20% -34.8% 22% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$2,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$970 vs −$1,575 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$328
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1,756
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $2,571 −$2,526 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $2,578 +$1,879 +73%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $10,112 −$6,681 -66%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $8,970 +$3,638 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $1,175 −$1,124 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $2,611 −$2,501 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $911 +$2,874 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $2,063 −$2,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $1,569 −$1,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $505 +$328 +65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,222 −$1,205 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $959 −$950 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $433 +$104 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,514 +$658 +43%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$40 +388%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,214 +$607 +50%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $115 +$26 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,033 +$251 +24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $405 −$398 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $408 +$264 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $811 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $855 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $396 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $410 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $444 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $659 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $343 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $568 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $508 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 22¢ $3,431 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10,112 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $8,970 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $575 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $600 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $810 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $732 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $506 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $564 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $422 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $489 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $317 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1,172 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $296 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $277 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records