trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -2.7% | -11.9% | 60% | 60% | -13.4% |
| ≤30d | 34 | -78.8% | -80.8% | 15% | 12% | -35.1% |
| ≤90d | 53 | -43.3% | -48.7% | 36% | 26% | -9.9% |
| all | 136 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 73% | 54% | -8.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.7% | 54% | -8.9% |
| 10% | -13.0% | 41% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -21.4% | 30% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -29.1% | 20% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $300 | $321 | +$21 (+7%) |
| Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | No | 76¢ | 84¢ | $114 | $127 | +$13 (+11%) |
| Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $60 | $60 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $48 | $48 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? | Yes | 96¢ | 94¢ | $48 | $47 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance | Jun 29 | $522 | +$178 | +34% |
| Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 | Jun 29 | $8 | +$2 | +32% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | Jun 29 | $104 | +$21 | +20% |
| Spread: France (-2.5) | Jun 26 | $253 | −$252 | -100% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 26 | $298 | $0 | -0% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on | Jun 12 | $19 | +$1 | +4% |
| Spread: Knicks (-13.5) | Jun 12 | $42 | +$8 | +18% |
| Rockets vs. Heat | Jun 09 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Spread: Celtics (-19.5) | Jun 09 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Suns | Jun 09 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Jun 09 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa | Jun 09 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Jun 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award | Jun 09 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | Jun 09 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: Pistons (-16.5) | Jun 09 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Bucks | Jun 09 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Clippers | Jun 09 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Rockets | Jun 09 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Wizards | Jun 09 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Jun 09 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Coppin State Eagles vs. Howard Bison | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Magic | Jun 09 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers | Jun 09 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Spread: Celtics (-5.5) | Jun 09 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | Jun 09 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Suns | Jun 09 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Celtics | Jun 09 | $39 | −$39 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Timberwolves | Jun 09 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | Jun 09 | $60 | −$53 | -89% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET | Jun 09 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET | Jun 09 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Jun 09 | $88 | −$88 | -100% |
| Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? | May 27 | $120 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 27 | $197 | +$3 | +2% |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 14 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | Apr 30 | $15 | +$5 | +36% |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Apr 30 | $133 | +$4 | +3% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 24 | $58 | +$42 | +72% |
| Heat vs. Hornets | Apr 17 | $10 | +$4 | +40% |
| Spread: Suns (-4.5) | Apr 17 | $20 | +$15 | +76% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Apr 14 | $12,573 | −$13 | -0% |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 14 | $12,586 | −$13 | -0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 14 | $12,000 | −$12 | -0% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no | Apr 14 | $12,611 | −$13 | -0% |
| Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 14 | $12,624 | −$13 | -0% |
| Hornets vs. Knicks | Apr 14 | $34 | +$6 | +16% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Apr 14 | $34 | +$16 | +45% |
| Spurs vs. Warriors | Apr 12 | $87 | +$13 | +15% |