Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc426…ac6e
crypto · 148 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$795 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$769 · open +$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,960
Realized+$769
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses91 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions21
Markets (closed)127 / 148
History coverage108d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 21 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$383
7 days−$388
14 days−$224
30 days−$885
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,004 +$4 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $300 $317 +$17 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $237 $236 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $161 $163 +$1 (+1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 90¢ 93¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 56¢ 58¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+4%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? No 54¢ 57¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? No 89¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? No 49¢ 47¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $819 −$146 -18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $159 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $162 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $157 −$31 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $171 −$25 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $285 −$168 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $78 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $800 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $300 +$7 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $930 −$13 -1%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 05 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 05 $128 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $293 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,412 +$169 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 22 $1,002 +$18 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 16 $55 −$54 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $627 −$627 -100%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $2 $0 +5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $1 $0 +30%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 05 $320 −$6 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants May 05 $2 $0 +8%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 05 $1 $0 +18%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May? May 05 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 38% +$191
sports 24% +$807
weather 13% −$207
other 13% −$4
politics 8% −$17
world 4% +$26
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 30m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $11 31m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $2 31m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $3 31m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $11 31m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 56¢ $6 31m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 54¢ $6 39m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $8 39m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $43 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $14 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -13.1% -21.4% 25% 5% -16.9%
≤30d 43 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 14% -17.2%
≤90d 110 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 16% -11.0%
all 127 -3.0% -12.2% 72% 17% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 17% -4.3%
10% -20.6% 11% -13.5%
15% -28.3% 7% -21.8%
20% -35.3% 5% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,959.61 · official $1,959.41 (match) · 761 history records