Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc426…ac5f sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$166 (+14%) realized +$155 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$102
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$124
other 5% −$28
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +13.1% +2.4% 64% 64% +1.1%
≤30d 34 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 50% -2.3%
≤90d 34 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 50% -2.3%
all 34 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 50% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 50% -2.3%
10% -17.8% 38% -11.7%
15% -25.7% 29% -20.2%
20% -33.0% 26% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage8d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 68¢ 74¢ $113 $123 +$11 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $74 −$70 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $63 −$28 -44%
Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 29 $182 +$30 +17%
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Jun 29 $140 +$31 +22%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $121 +$29 +24%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $101 +$20 +20%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $17 −$6 -33%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $70 +$32 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$9 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs FaZe Clan (BO1) - South America Leag Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 29 $40 +$25 +62%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $15 +$12 +77%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $21 +$31 +143%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $9 +$12 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +13%
Set 2 Winner: Eala vs Mertens Jun 22 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +33%
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Mertens Jun 22 $13 −$9 -69%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $7 +$5 +70%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $8 −$1 -11%
Set 2 Winner: Draxl vs Bertola Jun 22 $5 +$4 +84%
Set 2 Winner: Walton vs Kyrgios Jun 22 $20 −$15 -77%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $12 +$8 +64%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $24 −$13 -54%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $9 −$3 -38%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $27 +$6 +20%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $15 +$8 +54%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $19 −$4 -22%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $11 +$9 +81%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $11 −$1 -5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $27 −$3 -10%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $12 −$4 -35%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $2 −$1 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 68¢ $114 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 3¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 59¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 58¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 58¢ $55 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 41¢ $35 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $63 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones SELL Brandon Nakashima 95¢ $212 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Brandon Nakashima 81¢ $182 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic SELL Dino Prizmic 100¢ $171 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic BUY Dino Prizmic 81¢ $140 8h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $150 16h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 80¢ $121 17h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $120 17h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 83¢ $101 18h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $101 18h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $70 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 34¢ $10 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 26¢ $2 20h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 56¢ $0 20h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 56¢ $12 20h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 71¢ $15 20h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $66 23h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 61¢ $40 25h
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs FaZe Clan (BO1) - South America Leag BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $7 27h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $27 28h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Nigma Galaxy 56¢ $15 31h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $51 34h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Virtus.pro 3¢ $1 34h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 27¢ $6 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.48 · official $141.72 · 83 history records