Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc428…07ff
other · 36 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage278d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 0 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $33 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $38 −$2 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $16 $0 -0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 23 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican? Sep 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 10 $33 −$1 -2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon tweet between 380 and 399 times September 5–12? Sep 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 08 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$1
world 30% −$3
politics 12% $0
sports 10% $0
tech 7% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $35 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $25 7h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $7 7h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $33 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $1 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $34 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $36 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $32 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $32 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $35 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $38 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $38 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $38 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $34 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $34 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $34 8d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 97¢ $30 262d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $1 262d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 89¢ $2 262d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 97¢ $30 262d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 262d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 262d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 262d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $16 262d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $16 262d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 263d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 263d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 7 -1.0% -10.4% 14% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 7 -1.0% -10.4% 14% 0% -10.4%
all 36 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records